At the end of this post are listed the overall Chester County results. These are countywide only, if you want to see individual precincts, check the County site here. Why do we dive into the numbers? Because it’s not just about whether we won or lost, but how do those numbers compare to the past, and what do they tell us about the trends going forward?
The first thing we look at is Registered Voters. From the primary in May until the November election, total registered voters increased from 343,831 to 345,528, which is less than 1%. However, there is some overall data to factor in: namely, from the beginning of the year through when registration closed in October, there were 1,184 new registrations in the county, and 2,135 changes in party. Of the latter, 1,007 were Republicans who switched to being Democratic, 717 Democrats who changed to being Republican. The rest were both Democrats and Republicans who switched to other parties. This contrasts with prior years when there were more switches to the Republican Party. Registration has not changed that much over the past several years; the county is still R+6. It HAS however, changed massively over the past 20 years: in 1998, it was R+35.
Now, let’s look at turnout. Data on which party had what turnout is published for primaries, but not for general elections. We know that in the May 2017 primary, for the first time in history, Democratic turnout outstripped Republican turnout 17.93% to 16.87%. By way of comparison in the 2015 primary (the most recent comparable primary) Republican turnout dwarfed Democratic turnout 16.9% to 12.5%. In 2017, total turnout was 14.63% for the primary and 31.78% for the general. In 2015, turnout was 26.76% for the general, and thus that number improved by almost 20% this year.
Thus, our first conclusion is that our wins were in large part due to greater participation and votes for Democratic candidates from Republican and Other voters. Note: throughout this article, “Other” refers to people registered to other parties as well as those who provide no affiliation in their registration. When you look at the county numbers, irrespective of whether that person was elected or retained statewide for the Judicial positions, as well as the outcome of the Constitutional Amendment, people in our county voted a straight Democratic line. That can especially be seen in the retention votes, when Chesco voters were asked to vote YES for Debra Todd: her win total in the county was far higher than for any of the other retention votes.
Our second conclusion relates to the countywide campaigns themselves. First, the candidates ran coordinated campaigns. They appeared both as a group and individually but no matter what all spoke from the same playbook of what they would do if elected, were clear in how they would work together, and never stooped to negative campaigning. These candidates, Patricia Maisano, Margaret Reif, Yolanda Van de Krol and Christina Vandepol, were brand new candidates with no elected office experience, and ran against firmly entrenched opponents. Each is incredibly well qualified for the positions to which they’ve been elected, and they made sure that voters knew about their individual competencies.
There is no doubt the countywide candidates, as well as local candidates, benefitted by running as Democrats in a year where most people truly hate the Republicans, as seen in the multiple polls that are published on a regular basis. HOWEVER, none could have won without being competent, having ideas in lieu of running on an anti-Republican platform, and running campaigns with no unforced errors. This will be critical to remember as we move into the 2018 cycle.
This Thursday is Thanksgiving. On a personal note, it is my favourite day of the year. A day to give thanks for all we have. Me? I am incredibly grateful on a daily basis that I wake up having slept indoors, on a comfy bed with a pillow and a blankie, and I have potable water, indoor plumbing, electricity, heat, and everyone in my household has enough to eat every day. I am also lucky that I love people who love me back. If that is your life, too, I hope that you will take this moment to remember that most of the world, including people right here in Chester County, don’t have those things, and make a contribution to the charity of your choice.
BACK TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED PROGRAMMING
We did really well this year, better than Democrats have done ever in the history of Chester County. But this MUST BE only the beginning. We need to find good candidates for next year! And find them really soon. Could you, or someone you know, run for School Board, or Supervisor, or Mayor next year?
Other offices that will be up for election in 2018 include: the Senate (Bob Casey is the current incumbent); all Members of Congress; Governor (Incumbent: Tom Wolf); Lieutenant Governor (Incumbent: Mike Stack, and this is already a contested primary); all State Senators in even numbered districts, and all members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly.
In Chester County, row offices are elected in odd numbered years only, but if you, or someone you know, would like to run in 2019 for the next set of row offices, you could get started now. These positions are: District Attorney, Sheriff, Prothonotary, Register of Wills, and Recorder of Deeds.
So what do we do to make 2018 at least as successful as 2017? First, commit NOW to getting involved. There are so many ways to do so: there will be petition drives in January or February to get candidates on the ballot, and you can host a petition party so your neighbors can come sign petitions and learn about the candidates. Join one of the campaigns – many are up and running already. They need phone bankers, canvassers, data entry people, and if you don’t have time, make sure to give $5 contributions on a regular basis. If you can give more, great, but even small donations make a huge difference. Consider becoming a Block Captain – that involves working with just your neighbors to make sure they know about the election cycle, candidates and issues. Consider becoming a Committeeperson in your precinct. Finally, consider running for office.
ICC will have much more detail on these options (and voter registration drives!) in December, so watch this space! We win elections person by person, house by house, block by block – and we must keep the pressure on to increase turnout and bring in new non-voters. The higher the turnout, the more positions we win. Republicans win in low turnout elections, because too many Democrats just don’t vote in non-Presidential years. That changed this year, we need to keep it up!
If you want to get involved and don’t know where to start, drop a note to chair@indivisiblechesco.org and we will get you hooked up. Because of ALL of us, this year was a smashing success – stay involved!
As promised, the countywide results are below:
